The Limits of the
ECONOMIC CYCLE
an exercise in nonlinear economic dynamic modelling

by Andrew Rowson, supervised by Prof. A.R.Champneys
Home A Dismal Science Economic TheoryClassical Neoclassical Keynesian Cycles and Crises Measuring cycles Economic Time Series Data Processing Spectral Analysis Cycle Modelling Kaldor's Trade Cycle A Kaldorian model Conclusion Full Report	Economic Time Series Choice of data The OECD Statistics Portal (www.oecd.org/statistics) provides free access to 26 categories of economic, environmental and social statistics through OECD.Stat which is an open beta version of its software. The National Accounts database provides annual and quarterly GDP figures for all 30 member countries, with records dating back to around 1955. The series selected for this study are based on a single currency (US dollars) and seasonally adjusted to remove very short cycles. Figures are based on the OECD reference year which is currently the year 2000 and compared in terms of volumes rather than prices. This minimises the effect on output of price rises due to inflation. Differences in the level of prices of goods and services between countries can restrict the ability to compare volumes but the effect can be eliminated by adjusting prices to Purchasing Price Parities or PPP's. These are a spatial as opposed to a temporal index, which reflect relative costs based on a reference country, currently the US, or the average of a group of countries.